In the summer of 2022, over 84% of Sylhet, Bangladesh was flooded. Millions of people were affected, with almost 500,000 being evacuated to shelters. Watching the footage with my family in Florida, I commented, “Climate change will be the end of Bangladesh.” Someone responded, “This isn’t the climate. This is India.” I was shocked, unsure if their reaction was climate denialism, or if there was a sinister, geopolitical truth behind why hundreds of villages in my maternal district were being inundated.

South Asia’s history is steeped in violent nationalism. In 1947, when colonial India declared independence from the British, it was divided into a Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan, the eastern wing of the latter later declaring independence as modern day Bangladesh. This event, called Partition, was a bloody creation of nation-states where there previously were none. Around 1 million are estimated to have been killed; this devastation laid the foundation for the tense relations that still characterize South Asia. Subsequent to nation creation came subcontinental river politics. 

Water disputes started in 1948, mere months after Partition. India cut off Indus River flow into Pakistan, and it was only in 1960 that the Indus Waters Treaty was signed to establish clear rights. The treaty gives India control over three rivers, and Pakistan control over another three. Pakistan was granted 70% of total river flow, but it is the downstream nation for all six rivers. Pakistan has repeatedly accused India of violating the treaty on the basis of several dam projects. In 2023, India requested the treaty be renegotiated; however, as the downriver country, Pakistan is wary of letting the original treaty be abrogated. Though this treaty has been praised globally for its success, fear of a water war persists in Pakistan, as India retains the ability to artificially induce floods and droughts.

Another foundational agreement is the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty of 1996, with India and Bangladesh as its signatories. In 1972, shortly after Bangladesh declared independence from Pakistan, the two nations established a Joint River Commission to coordinate water management. A major point of contention was the development of the Farakka Barrage, a dam that diverted Ganges River water away from Bangladesh during the dry season, which led to overdried Bangladeshi rivers. A long period of resolutions and disagreements followed; Bangladesh wanted to internationalize the issue through the UN General Assembly and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, to no avail. The 1996 treaty stipulates that under 70,000 cusecs, the countries split water equally; when between 70,000 to 75,000 cusecs, India has the advantage of excess and Bangladesh is allocated the lowest half (35,000), and when exceeding 75,000, India’s share is 40,000 cusecs, and the rest goes to Bangladesh. 

Though Sylhet has different rivers, this surplus is what causes extreme flooding in Bangladesh. With increasing Himalayan snow melt as well as rainfall intensity, the flow into Bangladesh can be disastrous. This was also the case in Pakistan the summer of 2022, when unprecedented flooding inundated over a third of the country, and over a thousand people were killed. The opposite extreme also exists; in the southwestern districts of Bangladesh, residents are facing water scarcity. Upstream water diversion has caused high salinity of surrounding rivers, compromising them as a drinking water source. Residents must rely on reservoirs and tanks filled during the rainy season or import freshwater from distant areas. 

This dichotomy of downstream existence—extreme flooding and drought-inducing water diversion—has incited a slew of other crises. High salinity and flooding have jeopardized agriculture, leading to crop failure and compromised growing conditions. Upstream pollution is being inherited by lower riparian communities. Land-use change has also elevated flood risk, including wetland degradation in both upstream and downstream areas. Wetland degradation upstream interrupts river’s natural drainage systems, leading to increased runoff and flood risk downstream, where degradation compromises wetlands’ ability to serve as a buffer against flooding. Climate migration is on the rise, as whole villages are being swept away by their rivers. Bangladesh is regardfully referred to as nodi matrik desh, “a country borne by rivers,” but it’s these same rivers that are the cause of its devastation.

These foundational treaties were created at times of visceral tension between nations, and while in the case of the Indus Waters Treaty, it is necessary for downstream Pakistan to protect itself from any harmful amendments, it is high time to reassess water allocations to Bangladesh. As climate change intensifies water pressure, keeping southwestern Bangladesh from salinity stress may require new agreements. When I was in Mongla last summer, an official from Building Resources Across Communities (BRAC, Bangladesh’s largest NGO) said he understood why India was diverting water; it was protecting its own citizens, a motivation he empathized with. I hope the citizens of his downstream nation, suffering both flooding and drought, could be entitled the same rights. 

The intersection of climate change and river politics is costing South Asian communities their lives. To address one, it is necessary to address the other. In the case of South Asian river systems, maintaining water justice requires a consideration of existing agreements, as well as previously unaccounted-for factors, such as rainfall variability and pollution. The Ganges Water Sharing Treaty is set to expire in 2026. Reconsidering seasonal allocations, as well as including new climate and environmental stipulations, could invite a more equitable system. While there are agreements through the Joint River Commission, it is a largely inactive body. The two countries share 54 rivers, and the Ganges is the only one binding them through a treaty. Bangladesh’s request for a treaty regarding the Teesta River is overdue, let alone the several transboundary rivers that need formal, just regulations.

I end with an excerpt from a Bengali song, “Bistirno Dupare,” a call-to-action addressed to the Ganges River. Water justice will not be accomplished without action.

In the wide expanse of numerous people –
Hearing their despair,
O Ganga, why are you flowing silently?

Even after seeing the slippage of morality –
Seeing the fall of humanity –
Why are you flowing lazily, shamelessly?

A thousand rains –
Insanity –
With mantras, and millions,
Why don’t you have them rise up
To be a strong fighter, a pioneer

In the wide expanse of numerous people –
Hearing their despair,
O Ganga, why are you flowing silently?

Why are you silent in the absence of leadership?
A thousand rains –
Insanity  –
With mantras, and millions,
Why don’t you have them rise up
To be a strong fighter, a pioneer

In the wide expanse of numerous people –
Hearing their despair,
O Ganga, why are you flowing silently?