Modeling species distribution changes with climate change

SMEA Research Associate Ramon Gallego and co-authors from the University of Auckland published a paper in the Journal of Biogeography titled “On the need to consider multiphasic sensitivity of marine organisms to climate change: a case study of the Antarctic acorn barnacle.” In the paper the authors present the first study in which species distribution models (SDMs) have been simultaneously developed for both the larval and adult stages of the same organism, highlighting the importance of considering such effects on both larval and adult life stages. The main conclusions of the study finds that for multiphasic species, considering only a single life-history stage while studying distribution shifts may lead to erroneous conclusions for the species as a whole, regardless of the predictive capability of models employed. Ignoring the changes in suitable areas for larval stages can lead to underestimation of habitat reduction, distribution shifts, effects on population connectivity and potential for colonization of newly available habitats. Read the full article here: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jbi.13023/abstract